High-resolution climate modelling of fasciolosis risk in Australia: A One Health early-warning framework

Abstract

Fasciolosis, caused by the liver fluke Fasciola hepatica, is a climate-sensitive parasitic disease that threatens livestock health, productivity and farm profitability, with broader implications for food security, rural livelihoods, and sustainable food systems. The disease is endemic in Victoria, Australia, where environmental and climatic conditions favour parasite transmission at the livestock–environment interface. This study used high-resolution (5 km2) climate data from 40,504 grid points across Victoria to validate a Growing Degree Days (GDD) model for estimating fasciolosis risk over the past 50 years (1975–2024) and to project future risk for 2050 and 2090 under medium (RCP 4.5) and..